Although I have tweeted quite a bit about this paper, I have been rather slow to announce this paper on this blog.
Chen Ning, Kailiang Yu, C Jayaprakash, Vishwesha Guttal, 2018, Rising variability, not slowing down, as a leading indicator of a stochastically driven abrupt transition in a dryland ecosystem, The American Naturalist, 191: E1 E14, Data and Codes via Dryad.
In this paper, we conduct an empirical test of early warning signals in a dryland ecosystem in China. This was based on a very cool email-collaboration with Chen Ning, a graduate student at that time.
The empirical analyses closely match with results of one of my PhD thesis paper with Prof C Jayaprakash, who is also a coauthor on this paper.